2013년 11월 23일 토요일

About 'international politics degree'|...you studying mostly politics now Is that your prime...ZVONAREVA: I'm on the faculty of international economic relations...Mario Ancic who got his degree is going to...







About 'international politics degree'|...you studying mostly politics now Is that your prime...ZVONAREVA: I'm on the faculty of international economic relations...Mario Ancic who got his degree is going to...








An               interesting               analysis               on               the               current               global               financial               crisis               by               Dr.

George               Friedman,               founder               of               Strategic               Forecasting,               Inc.

Reprinted               with               permission.

By               George               Friedman
               The               G-20               met               last               Saturday.

Afterward,               the               group               issued               a               meaningless               statement               and               decided               to               meet               again               in               March               2009,               or               perhaps               later.

Clearly,               the               urgency               of               October               is               gone.

First,               the               perception               of               imminent               collapse               is               past.

Politicians               are               superb               seismographs               for               detecting               impending               disaster,               and               these               politicians               did               not               act               as               if               they               were               running               out               of               time.

Second,               the               United               States               will               have               a               new               president               in               March,               and               nothing               can               be               done               until               he               defines               his               policy.
               Given               the               sense               in               Europe               that               this               financial               crisis               marked               the               end               of               U.S.

economic               supremacy,               it               is               ironic               that               the               Europeans               are               waiting               on               the               Americans.

One               would               think               they               would               be               using               their               newfound               ascendancy               to               define               the               new               international               system.

But               the               fact               is               that               for               all               the               shouting,               little               has               changed               in               the               international               order.

The               crisis               has               receded               sufficiently               that               nothing               more               needs               to               be               done               immediately               beyond               "cooperation,"               and               nothing               can               be               done               until               the               United               States               defines               what               will               be               done.

We               feel               that               our               view               that               the               international               system               received               fatal               blows               Aug.

8,               when               Russia               and               Georgia               went               to               war,               and               Oct.

11,               when               the               G-7               meeting               ended               without               a               single               integrated               solution,               remains               unchallenged.

Now,               it               is               every               country               for               itself.
               From               Financial               Crisis               to               Cyclical               Recession
               The               financial               crisis               has               been               mitigated,               if               not               solved.

The               problem               now               is               that               we               are               in               a               cyclical               recession,               and               that               every               country               is               trying               to               figure               out               how               to               cope               with               the               recession.

Unlike               the               past               two               recessions,               this               one               is               more               global               than               local.

But               unlike               the               1970s,               when               recession               was               global,               this               one               is               not               accompanied               by               soaring               inflation               and               interest               rates.
               All               recessions               have               different               dynamics,               but               all               have               one               thing               in               common:               They               impose               punishment               and               discipline               on               economies               run               wild.

This               is               happening               around               the               world.
               China,               for               example,               faces               a               serious               problem.

China               is               an               export-oriented               economy               whose               primary               market               is               the               United               States.

As               the               United               States               goes               into               recession,               demand               for               Chinese               goods               declines.

Chinese               businesses               have               always               operated               on               very               tight               -               sometimes               invisible               -               profit               margins               designed               to               emphasize               cash               flow               and               to               pay               off               debts               to               banks.

As               U.S.

demand               contracts,               many               Chinese               firms               find               themselves               in               untenable               positions,               without               room               to               decrease               prices,               lacking               operating               reserves               and               insufficiently               capitalized.

Recessions               are               designed               to               cull               the               weak               from               the               herd,               and               a               huge               swath               of               the               Chinese               economy               is               ripe               for               the               culling.
               If               the               world               were               all               about               economics,               culling               is               what               the               Chinese               would               do.

But               the               world               is               more               complex               than               that.

A               culling               would               lead               to               massive               unemployment.

Many               Chinese               employees               live               on               Third               World               wages;               indeed,               the               vast               majority               of               Chinese               have               incomes               of               less               than               $1,000               a               year.

To               them,               unemployment               doesn't               mean               problems               with               their               401k.

It               means               malnutrition               and               desperation               -               neither               of               which               is               unknown               in               20th               century               Chinese               history,               including               the               Communist               period.

The               Chinese               government               is               rightly               worried               about               the               social               and               political               consequences               of               rational               economic               policies:               They               might               work               in               the               long               run,               but               only               if               you               live               that               long.
               Economic               Restructuring               vs.

Stability
               The               Chinese               have               therefore               prepared               a               massive               stimulus               package               that               is               more               of               a               development               program               to               make               up               for               declining               U.S.

demand.

It               aims               to               keep               businesses               from               failing               and               spilling               millions               of               angry               and               hungry               workers               into               the               street.

For               the               Chinese,               the               economic               problem               creates               a               much               larger               and               more               serious               issue.

It               is               also               an               issue               that               must               be               solved               quickly,               and               the               amount               of               time               needed               outstrips               the               amount               of               time               available.
               This               is               not               only               a               Chinese               problem.

Wherever               there               is               an               economic               downturn,               politicians               must               decide               whether               society               -               and               their               own               political               futures               -               can               withstand               the               rigors               recessions               impose.

Recessions               occur               when,               as               is               inevitable,               inefficiencies               and               irrationalities               build               up               in               the               financial               and               economic               system.

The               resulting               economic               downturn               imposes               a               harsh               discipline               that               destroys               the               inefficient,               encourages               everyone               to               become               more               efficient,               and               opens               the               doors               to               new               businesses               using               new               technologies               and               business               models.

The               year               2001               smashed               the               technology               sector               in               the               United               States,               opening               the               door               for               Google               Inc.
               The               business               cycle               works               well,               but               the               human               costs               can               be               daunting.

The               collapse               of               inefficient               businesses               leaves               workers               without               jobs,               investors               without               money               and               society               less               stable               than               before.

The               pain               needed               to               rectify               China's               economy               would               be               enormous,               with               devastating               consequences               for               hundreds               of               millions               of               Chinese,               and               probably               would               lead               to               social               chaos.

Beijing               is               prepared               to               accept               a               high               degree               of               economic               inefficiency               to               avoid,               or               at               least               postpone,               the               reckoning.

The               reckoning               always               comes,               but               for               most               of               us,               later               is               better               than               sooner.

Economic               rationality               takes               a               back               seat               to               social               necessity               and               political               common               sense.
               Every               country               in               the               world               is               looking               inward               at               the               impact               of               the               recession               on               its               economy               and               measuring               its               resources.

Countries               are               deciding               whether               they               have               the               ability               to               prop               up               business               that               should               fail,               what               the               social               consequences               of               business               failure               would               be,               and               whether               they               should               try               to               use               their               resources               to               avoid               the               immediate               pain               of               recession.

This               is               why               the               G-20               ended               in               meaningless               platitudes.
               Each               country               is               also               trying               to               answer               the               question               of               how               much               pain               it               -               and               its               regime               -               can               endure.

The               more               pain               imposed,               the               healthier               countries               will               emerge               economically               -               unless               of               course               the               pain               kills               them.

Ultimately,               the               rationality               of               economics               and               the               reality               of               society               frequently               diverge.
               Recession               and               the               U.S.

Auto               Industry
               For               the               United               States,               this               choice               has               been               posed               in               stark               terms               with               regard               to               the               dilemma               of               whether               the               U.S.

government               should               use               its               resources               to               rescue               the               American               auto               industry.

The               American               auto               industry               was               once               the               centerpiece               of               the               U.S.

economy.

That               hasn't               been               true               for               a               generation,               as               other               industries               and               services               have               supplanted               it               and               other               countries'               auto               industries               have               surpassed               it.

Nevertheless,               the               U.S.

auto               industry               remains               important.

It               might               drain               the               U.S.

economy               by               losing               vast               amounts               of               money               and               destroying               the               equity               held               by               its               investors,               but               it               employs               large               numbers               of               people.

Perhaps               more               important,               it               purchases               supplies               from               literally               thousands               of               U.S.

companies.
               There               can               be               endless               discussions               of               why               the               U.S.

auto               industry               is               in               such               trouble.

The               answer               lies               not               in               one               place               but               in               many,               from               the               decisions               and               makeup               of               management               to               the               unions               that               control               much               of               the               workforce,               and               from               the               cost               structure               inherent               in               producing               cars               in               the               American               economy               to               a               simple               systemic               inability               to               produce               outstanding               vehicles.

There               might               be               varying               degrees               of               truth               to               all               or               some               of               this,               but               the               fact               remains               that               each               of               the               U.S.

carmakers               is               on               the               verge               of               financial               collapse.
               This               is               what               recessions               are               supposed               to               do.

As               in               China               and               everywhere               else,               recessions               reveal               weak               businesses               and               destroy               them,               freeing               up               resources               for               new               enterprises.

This               recession               has               hit               the               auto               industry               hard,               and               it               is               unlikely               that               it               is               going               to               survive.

The               ultimate               reason               is               the               same               one               that               destroyed               the               U.S.

steel               industry               a               generation               ago:               Given               U.S.

cost               structures,               producing               commodity               products               is               best               left               to               countries               with               lower               wage               rates,               while               more               expensive               U.S.

labor               is               deployed               in               more               specialized               products               requiring               greater               expertise.

Thus,               there               is               still               steel               production               in               the               United               States,               but               it               is               specialty               steel               production,               not               commodity               steel.

Similarly,               there               will               be               specialty               auto               production               in               the               United               States,               but               commodity               auto               production               will               come               from               other               countries.
               That               sounds               easy,               but               the               transition               actually               will               be               a               bloodletting.

Current               employees               of               both               the               automakers               and               suppliers               will               be               devastated.

Institutions               that               have               lent               money               to               the               automakers               will               suffer               massive               or               total               losses.

Pensioners               might               lose               pensions               and               health               care               benefits,               and               an               entire               region               of               the               United               States               -               the               industrial               Midwest               -               will               be               devastated.

Something               stronger               will               grow               eventually,               but               not               in               time               for               many               of               the               current               employees,               shareholders               and               creditors.
               Here               the               economic               answer,               cull,               meets               the               social               answer,               stabilize.

Policymakers               have               a               decision               to               make.

If               the               automakers               fail               now,               their               drain               on               the               economy               will               end;               the               pain               will               be               shorter,               if               more               intense;               and               new               industries               would               emerge               more               quickly.

But               though               their               drain               on               the               economy               would               end,               the               impact               of               the               automakers'               failure               on               the               economy               would               be               seismic.

Unemployment               would               surge,               as               would               bankruptcies               of               many               auto               suppliers.

Defaults               on               loans               would               hit               the               credit               markets.

In               the               Midwest,               home               prices               would               plummet               and               foreclosures               would               skyrocket.

And               heaven               only               knows               what               the               impact               on               equity               markets               would               be.
               In               the               U.S.

case,               the               healthful               purgative               of               a               recession               could               potentially               put               the               patient               in               a               coma.

Few               if               any               believe               the               U.S.

auto               industry               can               survive               in               its               current               form.

But               there               is               an               emerging               consensus               in               Washington               that               the               auto               industry               must               not               be               allowed               to               fail               now.

The               argument               for               spending               money               on               the               auto               industry               is               not               to               save               it,               but               to               postpone               its               failure               until               a               less               devastating               and               inconvenient               time.

In               other               words,               fearing               the               social               and               political               consequences               of               a               recession               working               itself               through               to               its               logical               conclusion,               Washington               -               like               Beijing               -               wants               to               spend               money               it               probably               won't               recover               to               postpone               the               failure.

Indeed,               governments               around               the               world               are               considering               what               failures               to               tolerate,               what               failures               to               postpone,               and               how               much               to               spend               on               the               latter.

General               Motors               is               merely               the               American               case               in               point.
               The               Recession               in               Context
               The               people               arguing               for               postponement               aren't               foolish.

The               financial               system               is               still               working               its               way               through               a               massive               crisis               that               had               little               to               do               with               the               auto               industry.

Some               traction               appears               to               be               occurring;               certainly               there               was               no               crisis               atmosphere               at               the               G-20               meeting.

The               economy               is               in               recession,               but               in               spite               of               the               inevitable               claims               that               we               have               never               seen               anything               like               this               one               before,               we               have.

There               is               always               some               variable               that               swings               to               an               extreme               -               this               time,               it               is               consumer               spending               -               but               we               are               still               well               within               the               framework               of               recent               recessions.
               Consider               the               equity               markets,               which               we               regard               as               a               long-term               measure               of               the               market's               evaluation               of               the               state               of               the               economy.

In               January               2000,               the               S&P               500               peaked               at               1,455.

This               was               the               top               of               the               market.

In               July               2002,               18               months               later,               the               S&P               bottomed               out               at               935.

Over               the               next               five               years               it               rose               to               1,519               in               July               2007,               the               height               for               this               cycle.

It               fell               from               this               point               until               Nov.

12,               2008,               when               it               closed               at               852.30.

This               past               Friday,               it               was               at               873.29.
               We               do               not               know               what               the               market               will               do               in               the               future.

There               are               people               much               smarter               than               we               are               who               claim               to               know               that.

What               we               do               know               is               what               it               has               done.

And               what               it               has               done               this               time               -               so               far               -               is               almost               exactly               what               it               did               last               time,               except               that               in               2000-2002               it               took               18               months               to               do               it,               while               this               time               it               was               done               in               about               16               and               a               half               months               (assuming               it               bottomed               out               Nov.

12).

But               even               if               the               market               didn't               bottom               out               then,               and               it               falls               to               775,               for               example,               it               will               have               lost               50               percent               of               its               value               from               the               peak.

This               would               be               more               than               in               2000-2002,               but               not               unprecedented.
               The               point               we               are               making               here               is               that               if               we               regard               the               equity               markets               as               a               long-term               seismograph               of               the               economy,               then               so               far,               despite               all               the               storm               and               stress,               the               markets               -               and               therefore               the               economy               -               remain               within               the               general               pattern               of               the               2000-2002               market               at               the               2001               recession.

That               recession               certainly               was               unpleasant,               what               with               the               devastation               of               the               tech               sector,               but               the               economy               survived.

At               the               same               time,               however,               it               is               clear               that               things               are               balanced               on               a               knife's               edge.

Another               hundred               points'               fall               on               the               S&P,               and               the               markets               will               be               telling               us               that               the               world               is               in               a               very               different               place               indeed.
               A               massive               bankruptcy               in               the               automotive               sector               could               certainly               set               the               stage               for               an               economic               renaissance               in               the               next               generation.

But               at               this               particular               moment               in               time               (it's               no               coincidence               that               the               crisis               in               the               U.S.

automotive               industry               comes               as               we               enter               a               recession),               a               wave               of               bankruptcies               would               dramatically               deepen               the               recession.

This               probably               would               be               reflected               by               the               destruction               of               trillions               more               in               net               worth               in               the               equity               markets.
               There               is               a               powerful               counterargument               to               bailing               out               the               U.S.

auto               industry.

This               argument               holds               that               the               auto               industry               is               a               drain               on               the               U.S.

economy,               that               it               will               never               be               globally               competitive,               and               that               if               it               is               dragged               back               from               the               edge,               no               one               will               then               say               it               is               time               to               push               it               to               the               edge               and               over.

The               next               time               it               will               be               on               the               brink               will               be               during               the               next               recession,               and               the               same               argument               to               save               it               will               be               used.

In               due               course,               the               United               States,               like               China,               will               be               so               terrified               of               the               social               and               political               consequences               of               business               failure               that               it               will               maintain               Chinese-like               state               owned               enterprises,               full               of               employees               and               generation-old               plants               and               business               models.

Clearly,               short-run               solutions               can               easily               become               long-term               albatrosses.
               The               only               possible               solution               would               be               a               bailout               followed               by               a               Washington-administered               restructuring               of               the               auto               industry.

This               causes               us               to               imagine               a               collaboration               between               the               auto               industry's               current               management               and               Washington               administrators               that               would               finally               put               Detroit               on               a               path               to               where               it               can               compete               with               Toyota.

Frankly,               the               mind               boggles               at               this.

But               boggle               though               we               might,               hitting               the               economy               with               another               massive               financial               default,               a               wave               of               bankruptcies,               massive               unemployment               surges               and               another               blow               to               housing               prices               boggles               our               mind               even               more.
               The               geopolitical               problem               confronting               the               world               at               the               moment               is               that               it               has               been               forced               to               offer               massive               support               to               the               global               financial               system               with               sovereign               wealth               -               e.g.,               via               taxes               and               currency               printing               presses.

The               world               might               just               have               squeaked               through               that               crisis.

Now,               the               world               is               in               an               inevitable               recession               and               businesses               are               on               the               brink               of               failure.

A               wave               of               massive               business               failures               on               top               of               the               financial               crisis               might               well               move               the               global               system               to               a               very               different               place.

Therefore,               each               nation,               by               itself               and               indifferent               to               others,               is               in               the               process               of               figuring               out               how               to               postpone               these               failures               to               a               more               opportune               time               -               or               to               never.

This               will               build               in               long-term               inefficiencies               to               the               global               economy,               but               right               now               everyone               will               be               quite               content               with               that.
               Thus               the               financial               crisis               became               a               recession,               and               the               recession               triggered               bankruptcies.

And               because               no               one               wants               bankruptcies               right               now,               everyone               who               can               is               using               taxpayer               dollars               to               protect               the               taxpayer               from               the               consequences               of               mismanagement.

And               the               last               thing               any               one               cared               about               was               the               G-20               concept               for               the               future               of               the               economic               system.






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